On November 1, Institute Social hosted Professor Martin K. Whyte for a webinar of Global Reflections Series titled “Be Careful What You Wish For: China Confronts Population Decline”. Professor Whyte examined China’s population policies, the impact of the one-child policy, and the broader challenges posed by an aging society, as the country faces a rapid decline in birth rates.

Professor Whyte began by explaining how China became the world’s most populous nation following the founding of the Republic. He noted that from the late 1970s, the Communist Party began to implement restrictive policies to curb the birth rate, culminating in the one-child policy introduced in 1980. As economic growth took hold in the following decades, Whyte pointed out that factors like higher education and urbanization played a role in lowering birth rates. However, he emphasized that the one-child policy accelerated this decline, creating a host of demographic and social issues that continue to affect China today.

By 2022, Whyte notes that China had become one of the fastest-aging countries globally. The rapid growth of the elderly population has occurred without the necessary institutional frameworks or resources in place to manage the needs of this demographic. In addition, he highlighted the financial burdens aging would bring, including a shrinking workforce, increased pension obligations, and growing social security deficits.

Despite recent policy changes such as offering birth incentives, extending parental leave, and expanding access to early childhood education these measures have not been effective in reversing the trend of declining birth rates. Drawing from the experience of other countries, he suggested that such short-term solutions are unlikely to have lasting impact. Rather than merely focusing on birth rate incentives, China’s Communist Party should prioritize broader societal reforms that promote well-being. This would include improving educational access for rural youth, addressing gender inequality, and strengthening the country’s social security systems to better support an aging population.